Bone turnover change after randomized switch from tenofovir disoproxil to tenofovir alafenamide fumarate in men with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Bone loss in people with HIV (PWH) is poorly understood. Switching tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) has yielded bone mineral density (BMD) increases. PETRAM (NCT#:03405012) investigated whether BMD and bone turnover changes correlate. DESIGN: Open-label, randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Single-site, outpatient, secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Nonosteoporotic, virologically suppressed, cis-male PWH taking TDF/emtricitabine (FTC)/rilpivirine (RPV) for more than 24 weeks. INTERVENTION: Continuing TDF/FTC/RPV versus switching to TAF/FTC/RPV (1 : 1 randomization). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: :[ 18 F]NaF-PET/CT for bone turnover (standardized uptake values, SUV mean ) and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry for lumbar spine and total hip BMD. RESULTS: Thirty-two men, median age 51 years, 76% white, median duration TDF/FTC/RPV 49 months, were randomized between 31 August 2018 and 09 March 2020. Sixteen TAF:11 TDF were analyzed. Baseline-final scan range was 23-103 (median 55) weeks. LS-SUV mean decreased for both groups (TAF -7.9% [95% confidence interval -14.4, -1.5], TDF -5.3% [-12.1,1.5], P  = 0.57). TH-SUV mean showed minimal changes (TAF +0.3% [-12.2,12.8], TDF +2.9% [-11.1,16.9], P  = 0.77). LS-BMD changes were slightly more favorable with TAF but failed to reach significance (TAF +1.7% [0.3,3.1], TDF -0.3 [-1.8,1.2], P  = 0.06). Bone turnover markers decreased more with TAF ([CTX -35.3% [-45.7, -24.9], P1NP -17.6% [-26.2, -8.5]) than TDF (-11.6% [-28.8, +5.6] and -6.9% [-19.2, +5.4] respectively); statistical significance was only observed for CTX ( P  = 0.02, P1NP, P  = 0.17). CONCLUSION: Contrary to our hypothesis, lumbar spine and total hip regional bone formation (SUV mean ) and BMD did not differ postswitch to TAF. However, improved LS-BMD and CTX echo other TAF-switch studies. The lack of difference in SUV mean may be due to inadequate power.

Rate of response to initial antiretroviral therapy according to level of pre-existing HIV-1 drug resistance detected by next-generation sequencing in the strategic timing of antiretroviral treatment (START) study.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this analysis was to evaluate the impact of pre-existing drug resistance by next-generation sequencing (NGS) on the risk of treatment failure (TF) of first-line regimens in participants enrolled in the START study. METHODS: Stored plasma from participants with entry HIV RNA >1000 copies/mL were analysed using NGS (llumina MiSeq). Pre-existing drug resistance was defined using the mutations considered by the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB v8.6) to calculate the genotypic susceptibility score (GSS, estimating the number of active drugs) for the first-line regimen at the detection threshold windows of >20%, >5%, and >2% of the viral population. Survival analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between the GSS and risk of TF (viral load >200 copies/mL plus treatment change). RESULTS: Baseline NGS data were available for 1380 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve participants enrolled over 2009-2013. First-line ART included a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) in 976 (71%), a boosted protease inhibitor in 297 (22%), or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor in 107 (8%). The proportions of participants with GSS <3 were 7% for >20%, 10% for >5%, and 17% for the >2% thresholds, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of TF associated with a GSS of 0-2.75 versus 3 in the subset of participants with mutations detected at the >2% threshold was 1.66 (95% confidence interval 1.01-2.74; p = 0.05) and 2.32 (95% confidence interval 1.32-4.09; p = 0.003) after restricting the analysis to participants who started an NNRTI-based regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Up to 17% of participants initiated ART with a GSS <3 on the basis of NGS data. Minority variants were predictive of TF, especially for participants starting NNRTI-based regimens.

Accelerated partner therapy contact tracing for people with chlamydia (LUSTRUM): a crossover cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated partner therapy has shown promise in improving contact tracing. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of accelerated partner therapy in addition to usual contact tracing compared with usual practice alone in heterosexual people with chlamydia, using a biological primary outcome measure. METHODS: We did a crossover cluster-randomised controlled trial in 17 sexual health clinics (clusters) across England and Scotland. Participants were heterosexual people aged 16 years or older with a positive Chlamydia trachomatis test result, or a clinical diagnosis of conditions for which presumptive chlamydia treatment and contact tracing are initially provided, and their sexual partners. We allocated phase order for clinics through random permutation within strata. In the control phase, participants received usual care (health-care professional advised the index patient to tell their sexual partner[s] to attend clinic for sexually transmitted infection screening and treatment). In the intervention phase, participants received usual care plus an offer of accelerated partner therapy (health-care professional assessed sexual partner[s] by telephone, then sent or gave the index patient antibiotics and sexually transmitted infection self-sampling kits for their sexual partner[s]). Each phase lasted 6 months, with a 2-week washout at crossover. The primary outcome was the proportion of index patients with a positive C trachomatis test result at 12-24 weeks after contact tracing consultation. Secondary outcomes included proportions and types of sexual partners treated. Analysis was done by intention-to-treat, fitting random effects logistic regression models. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 15996256. FINDINGS: Between Oct 24, 2018, and Nov 17, 2019, 1536 patients were enrolled in the intervention phase and 1724 were enrolled in the control phase. All clinics completed both phases. In total, 4807 sexual partners were reported, of whom 1636 (34%) were steady established partners. Overall, 293 (19%) of 1536 index patients chose accelerated partner therapy for a total of 305 partners, of whom 248 (81%) accepted. 666 (43%) of 1536 index patients in the intervention phase and 800 (46%) of 1724 in the control phase were tested for C trachomatis at 12-24 weeks after contact tracing consultation; 31 (4·7%) in the intervention phase and 53 (6·6%) in the control phase had a positive C trachomatis test result (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·41 to 1·04]; p=0·071; marginal absolute difference -2·2% [95% CI -4·7 to 0·3]). Among index patients with treatment status recorded, 775 (88·0%) of 881 patients in the intervention phase and 760 (84·6%) of 898 in the control phase had at least one treated sexual partner at 2-4 weeks after contact tracing consultation (adjusted OR 1·27 [95% CI 0·96 to 1·68]; p=0·10; marginal absolute difference 2·7% [95% CI -0·5 to 6·0]). No clinically significant harms were reported. INTERPRETATION: Although the evidence that the intervention reduces repeat infection was not conclusive, the trial results suggest that accelerated partner therapy can be safely offered as a contact tracing option and is also likely to be cost saving. Future research should find ways to increase uptake of accelerated partner therapy and develop alternative interventions for one-off sexual partners. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Diagnosis delays in the UK according to pre or postmigration acquisition of HIV.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether infection occurred pre or postmigration and the associated diagnosis delay in migrants diagnosed with HIV in the UK. DESIGN: We analyzed a cohort of individuals diagnosed with HIV in the UK in 2014-2016 born in Africa or elsewhere in Europe. Inclusion criteria were arrival within 15 years before diagnosis, availability of HIV pol sequence, and viral subtype shared by at least 10 individuals. METHODS: We examined phylogenies for evidence of infection after entry into the UK and incorporated this information into a Bayesian analysis of timing of infection using biomarkers of CD4+ cell count, avidity assays, proportion of ambiguous nucleotides in viral sequences, and last negative test dates where available. RESULTS: One thousand, two hundred and fifty-six individuals were included. The final model indicated that HIV was acquired postmigration for most MSM born in Europe (posterior expectation 65%, 95% credibility interval 64-67%) or Africa (65%, 62-69%), whereas a minority (20-30%) of men and women with heterosexual transmission acquired HIV postmigration. Estimated diagnosis delays were lower for MSM than for those with heterosexual transmission, and were lower for those with postmigration infection across all subgroups. For MSM acquiring HIV postmigration, the estimated mean time to diagnosis was less than one year, but for those who acquired HIV premigration, the mean time from infection to diagnosis was more than five years for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: Acquisition of HIV postmigration is common, particularly among MSM, calling for prevention efforts aimed at migrant communities. Delays in diagnosis reinforce the need for targeted testing initiatives.

Using machine learning and big data to explore the drug resistance landscape in HIV.

Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) appear in HIV under treatment pressure. DRMs are commonly transmitted to naive patients. The standard approach to reveal new DRMs is to test for significant frequency differences of mutations between treated and naive patients. However, we then consider each mutation individually and cannot hope to study interactions between several mutations. Here, we aim to leverage the ever-growing quantity of high-quality sequence data and machine learning methods to study such interactions (i.e. epistasis), as well as try to find new DRMs. We trained classifiers to discriminate between Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (RTI)-experienced and RTI-naive samples on a large HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) sequence dataset from the UK (n ≈ 55, 000), using all observed mutations as binary representation features. To assess the robustness of our findings, our classifiers were evaluated on independent data sets, both from the UK and Africa. Important representation features for each classifier were then extracted as potential DRMs. To find novel DRMs, we repeated this process by removing either features or samples associated to known DRMs. When keeping all known resistance signal, we detected sufficiently prevalent known DRMs, thus validating the approach. When removing features corresponding to known DRMs, our classifiers retained some prediction accuracy, and six new mutations significantly associated with resistance were identified. These six mutations have a low genetic barrier, are correlated to known DRMs, and are spatially close to either the RT active site or the regulatory binding pocket. When removing both known DRM features and sequences containing at least one known DRM, our classifiers lose all prediction accuracy. These results likely indicate that all mutations directly conferring resistance have been found, and that our newly discovered DRMs are accessory or compensatory mutations. Moreover, apart from the accessory nature of the relationships we found, we did not find any significant signal of further, more subtle epistasis combining several mutations which individually do not seem to confer any resistance.

Accelerated partner therapy (APT) partner notification for people with Chlamydia trachomatis: protocol for the Limiting Undetected Sexually Transmitted infections to RedUce Morbidity (LUSTRUM) APT cross-over cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Partner notification (PN) is a process aiming to identify, test and treat the sex partners of people (index patients) with sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Accelerated partner therapy (APT) is a PN method whereby healthcare professionals assess sex partners, by telephone consultation, before giving the index patient antibiotics and STI self-sampling kits to deliver to their sex partner(s). The Limiting Undetected Sexually Transmitted infections to RedUce Morbidity programme aims to determine the effectiveness of APT in heterosexual women and men with chlamydia and determine whether APT could affect Chlamydia trachomatis transmission at population level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a cross-over cluster randomised controlled trial of APT, offered as an additional PN method, compared with standard PN. The trial is accompanied by an economic evaluation, transmission dynamic modelling and a qualitative process evaluation involving patients, partners and healthcare professionals. Clusters are 17 sexual health clinics in areas of England and Scotland with contrasting patient demographics. We will recruit 5440 heterosexual women and men with chlamydia, aged ≥16 years.The primary outcome is the proportion of index patients testing positive for C. trachomatis 12-16 weeks after the PN consultation. Secondary outcomes include: proportion of sex partners treated; cost effectiveness; model-predicted chlamydia prevalence; experiences of APT.The primary outcome analysis will be by intention-to-treat, fitting random effects logistic regression models that account for clustering of index patients within clinics and trial periods. The transmission dynamic model will be used to predict change in chlamydia prevalence following APT. The economic evaluation will use mathematical modelling outputs, taking a health service perspective. Qualitative data will be analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis and framework analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol received ethical approval from London-Chelsea Research Ethics Committee (18/LO/0773). Findings will be published with open access licences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15996256.

Associations between baseline characteristics, CD4 cell count response and virological failure on first-line efavirenz + tenofovir + emtricitabine for HIV.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and CD4 cell count response on first-line antiretroviral therapy and risk of virological failure (VF) with or without drug resistance. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of UK Collaborative HIV Cohort data linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Inclusion criteria were viral sequence showing no resistance prior to initiation of first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine and virological suppression within 6 months. Outcomes of VF (≥200 copies/mL) with or without drug resistance were assessed using a competing risks approach fitted jointly with a model for CD4 cell count recovery. Hazard ratios for each VF outcome were estimated for baseline CD4 cell count and viral load and characteristics of CD4 cell count response using latent variables on a standard normal scale. RESULTS: A total of 3640 people were included with 338 VF events; corresponding viral sequences were available in 134 with ≥1 resistance mutation in 36. VF with resistance was associated with lower baseline CD4 (0.30, 0.09-0.62), lower CD4 recovery (0.04, 0.00-0.17) and higher CD4 variability (4.40, 1.22-12.68). A different pattern of associations was observed for VF without resistance, but the strength of these results was less consistent across sensitivity analyses. Cumulative incidence of VF with resistance was estimated to be <2% at 3 years for baseline CD4 ≥350 cells/µL. CONCLUSION: Lower baseline CD4 cell count and suboptimal CD4 recovery are associated with VF with drug resistance. People with low CD4 cell count before ART or with suboptimal CD4 recovery on treatment should be a priority for regimens with high genetic barrier to resistance.

HIV-1 Transmission Patterns in Men Who Have Sex with Men: Insights from Genetic Source Attribution Analysis.

Near 60% of new HIV infections in the United Kingdom are estimated to occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). Age-disassortative partnerships in MSM have been suggested to spread the HIV epidemics in many Western developed countries and to contribute to ethnic disparities in infection rates. Understanding these mixing patterns in transmission can help to determine which groups are at a greater risk and guide public health interventions. We analyzed combined epidemiological data and viral sequences from MSM diagnosed with HIV at the national level. We applied a phylodynamic source attribution model to infer patterns of transmission between groups of patients. From pair probabilities of transmission between 14,603 MSM patients, we found that potential transmitters of HIV subtype B were on average 8 months older than recipients. We also found a moderate overall assortativity of transmission by ethnic group and a stronger assortativity by region. Our findings suggest that there is only a modest net flow of transmissions from older to young MSM in subtype B epidemics and that young MSM, both for Black or White groups, are more likely to be infected by one another than expected in a sexual network with random mixing.

Diagnostic implications of genetic copy number variation in epilepsy plus.

OBJECTIVE: Copy number variations (CNVs) represent a significant genetic risk for several neurodevelopmental disorders including epilepsy. As knowledge increases, reanalysis of existing data is essential. Reliable estimates of the contribution of CNVs to epilepsies from sizeable populations are not available. METHODS: We assembled a cohort of 1255 patients with preexisting array comparative genomic hybridization or single nucleotide polymorphism array based CNV data. All patients had "epilepsy plus," defined as epilepsy with comorbid features, including intellectual disability, psychiatric symptoms, and other neurological and nonneurological features. CNV classification was conducted using a systematic filtering workflow adapted to epilepsy. RESULTS: Of 1097 patients remaining after genetic data quality control, 120 individuals (10.9%) carried at least one autosomal CNV classified as pathogenic; 19 individuals (1.7%) carried at least one autosomal CNV classified as possibly pathogenic. Eleven patients (1%) carried more than one (possibly) pathogenic CNV. We identified CNVs covering recently reported (HNRNPU) or emerging (RORB) epilepsy genes, and further delineated the phenotype associated with mutations of these genes. Additional novel epilepsy candidate genes emerge from our study. Comparing phenotypic features of pathogenic CNV carriers to those of noncarriers of pathogenic CNVs, we show that patients with nonneurological comorbidities, especially dysmorphism, were more likely to carry pathogenic CNVs (odds ratio = 4.09, confidence interval = 2.51-6.68; P = 2.34 × 10-9 ). Meta-analysis including data from published control groups showed that the presence or absence of epilepsy did not affect the detected frequency of CNVs. SIGNIFICANCE: The use of a specifically adapted workflow enabled identification of pathogenic autosomal CNVs in 10.9% of patients with epilepsy plus, which rose to 12.7% when we also considered possibly pathogenic CNVs. Our data indicate that epilepsy with comorbid features should be considered an indication for patients to be selected for a diagnostic algorithm including CNV detection. Collaborative large-scale CNV reanalysis leads to novel declaration of pathogenicity in unexplained cases and can promote discovery of promising candidate epilepsy genes.

Virological outcomes of boosted protease inhibitor-based first-line ART in subjects harbouring thymidine analogue-associated mutations as the sole form of transmitted drug resistance.

OBJECTIVES: In subjects with transmitted thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs), boosted PIs (PI/b) are often chosen to overcome possible resistance to the NRTI backbone. However, data to guide treatment selection are limited. Our aim was to obtain firmer guidance for clinical practice using real-world cohort data. METHODS: We analysed 1710 subjects who started a PI/b in combination with tenofovir or abacavir plus emtricitabine or lamivudine, and compared their virological outcomes with those of 4889 patients who started an NNRTI (predominantly efavirenz), according to the presence of ≥1 TAM as the sole form of transmitted drug resistance. RESULTS: Participants with ≥1 TAM comprised predominantly MSM (213 of 269, 79.2%), subjects of white ethnicity (206 of 269, 76.6%) and HIV-1 subtype B infections (234 of 269, 87.0%). Most (203 of 269, 75.5%) had singleton TAMs, commonly a revertant of T215Y or T215F (112 of 269, 41.6%). Over a median of 2.5 years of follow-up, 834 of 6599 (12.6%) subjects experienced viraemia (HIV-1 RNA >50 copies/mL). The adjusted HR for viraemia was 2.17 with PI/b versus NNRTI-based therapy (95% CI 1.88-2.51; P < 0.001). Other independent predictors of viraemia included injecting drug use, black ethnicity, higher viral load and lower CD4 cell count at baseline, and receiving abacavir instead of tenofovir. Resistance showed no overall impact (adjusted HR 0.77 with ≥1 TAM versus no resistance; 95% CI 0.54-1.10; P = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, patients harbouring ≥1 TAM as the sole form of transmitted drug resistance gained no apparent virological advantage from starting first-line ART with a PI/b.

Determining the Origins of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Drug-resistant Minority Variants in People Who Are Recently Infected Using Phylogenetic Reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant minority variants (DRMinVs) detected in patients who recently acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be transmitted, generated de novo through virus replication, or technical errors. The first form is likely to persist and result in treatment failure, while the latter two could be stochastic and transient. METHODS: Ultradeep sequencing of plasma samples from 835 individuals with recent HIV-1 infection in the United Kingdom was performed to detect DRMinVs at a mutation frequency between 2% and 20%. Sequence alignments including >110 000 HIV-1 partial pol consensus sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK-HDRD), linked to epidemiological and clinical data from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System, were used for transmission cluster analysis. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker with a clade support of >90% and maximum genetic distances of 4.5% or 1.5%, the latter to limit detection to likely direct transmission events. RESULTS: Drug-resistant majority variants (DRMajVs) were detected in 66 (7.9%) and DRMinVs in 84 (10.1%) of the recently infected individuals. High levels of clustering to sequences in UK-HDRD were observed for both DRMajV (n = 48; 72.7%) and DRMinV (n = 63; 75.0%) sequences. Of these, 43 (65.2%) with DRMajVs were in a transmission cluster with sequences that harbored the same DR mutation compared to only 3 (3.6%) sequences with DRMinVs (P < .00001, Fisher exact test). Evidence of likely direct transmission of DRMajVs was observed for 25/66 (37.9%), whereas none were observed for the DRMinVs (P < .00001). CONCLUSIONS: Using a densely sampled HIV-infected population, we show no evidence of DRMinV transmission among recently infected individuals.

Non-disclosed men who have sex with men in UK HIV transmission networks: phylogenetic analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Patients who do not disclose their sexuality, including men who do not disclose same-sex behaviour, are difficult to characterise through traditional epidemiological approaches such as interviews. Using a recently developed method to detect large networks of viral sequences from time-resolved trees, we localised non-disclosed men who have sex with men (MSM) in UK transmission networks, gaining crucial insight into the behaviour of this group. METHODS: For this phylogenetic analysis, we obtained HIV pol sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UKRDB), a central repository for resistance tests done as part of routine clinical care throughout the UK. Sequence data are linked to demographic and clinical data held by the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study and the national HIV/AIDS reporting system database. Initially, we reconstructed maximum likelihood phylogenies from these sequences, then sequences were selected for time-resolved analysis in BEAST if they were clustered with at least one other sequence at a genetic distance of 4·5% or less with support of at least 90%. We used time-resolved phylogenies to create networks by linking together nodes if sequences shared a common ancestor within the previous 5 years. We identified potential non-disclosed MSM (pnMSM), defined as self-reported heterosexual men who clustered only with men. We measured the network position of pnMSM, including betweenness (a measure of connectedness and importance) and assortativity (the propensity for nodes sharing attributes to link). FINDINGS: 14 405 individuals were in the network, including 8452 MSM, 1743 heterosexual women and 1341 heterosexual men. 249 pnMSM were identified (18·6% of all clustered heterosexual men) in the network. pnMSM were more likely to be black African (p<0·0001), less likely to be infected with subtype B (p=0·006), and were slightly older (p=0·002) than the MSM they clustered with. Mean betweenness centrality was lower for pnMSM than for MSM (1·31, 95% CI 0·48-2·15 in pnMSM vs 2·24, 0·98-3·51 in MSM; p=0·002), indicating that pnMSM were in peripheral positions in MSM clusters. Assortativity by risk group was higher than expected (0·037 vs -0·037, p=0·01) signifying that pnMSM were linked to each other. We found that self-reported heterosexual men were more likely to link MSM and heterosexual women than heterosexual women were to link MSM and heterosexual men (Fisher's exact test p=0·0004; OR 2·24) but the number of such transmission chains was small (only 54 in total vs 32 in women). INTERPRETATION: pnMSM are a subgroup distinct from both MSM and from heterosexual men. They are more likely to choose sexual partners who are also pnMSM and might exhibit lower-risk sexual behaviour than MSM (eg, choosing low-risk partners or consistently using condoms). Heterosexual men are the group most likely to be diagnosed with late-stage disease (ie, low CD4 counts) and non-disclosed MSM might put female partners at higher risk than heterosexual men because non-disclosed MSM have male partners. Hence, pnMSM require specific consideration to ensure they are included in public health interventions. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Risk factors and outcomes for the Q151M and T69 insertion HIV-1 resistance mutations in historic UK data.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of HIV-1 resistance to antiretroviral therapies (ART) has declined in high-income countries over recent years, but drug resistance remains a substantial concern in many low and middle-income countries. The Q151M and T69 insertion (T69i) resistance mutations in the viral reverse transcriptase gene can reduce susceptibility to all nucleoside/tide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors, motivating the present study to investigate the risk factors and outcomes associated with these mutations. METHODS: We considered all data in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for blood samples obtained in the period 1997-2014. Where available, treatment history and patient outcomes were obtained through linkage to the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. A matched case-control approach was used to assess risk factors associated with the appearance of each of the mutations in ART-experienced patients, and survival analysis was used to investigate factors associated with viral suppression. A further analysis using matched controls was performed to investigate the impact of each mutation on survival. RESULTS: A total of 180 patients with Q151M mutation and 85 with T69i mutation were identified, almost entirely from before 2006. Occurrence of both the Q151M and T69i mutations was strongly associated with cumulative period of virological failure while on ART, and for Q151M there was a particular positive association with use of stavudine and negative association with use of boosted-protease inhibitors. Subsequent viral suppression was negatively associated with viral load at sequencing for both mutations, and for Q151M we found a negative association with didanosine use but a positive association with boosted-protease inhibitor use. The results obtained in these analyses were also consistent with potentially large associations with other drugs. Analyses were inconclusive regarding associations between the mutations and mortality, but mortality was high for patients with low CD4 at detection. CONCLUSIONS: The Q151M and T69i resistance mutations are now very rare in the UK. Our results suggest that good outcomes are possible for people with these mutations. However, in this historic sample, viral load and CD4 at detection were important factors in determining prognosis.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtype B Reveals Heterogeneous Transmission Risk: Implications for Intervention and Control.

Background: The impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) depends on infections averted by protecting vulnerable individuals as well as infections averted by preventing transmission by those who would have been infected if not receiving PrEP. Analysis of HIV phylogenies reveals risk factors for transmission, which we examine as potential criteria for allocating PrEP. Methods: We analyzed 6912 HIV-1 partial pol sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom combined with global reference sequences and patient-level metadata. Population genetic models were developed that adjust for stage of infection, global migration of HIV lineages, and changing incidence of infection through time. Models were extended to simulate the effects of providing susceptible MSM with PrEP. Results: We found that young age <25 years confers higher risk of HIV transmission (relative risk = 2.52 [95% confidence interval, 2.32-2.73]) and that young MSM are more likely to transmit to one another than expected by chance. Simulated interventions indicate that 4-fold more infections can be averted over 5 years by focusing PrEP on young MSM. Conclusions: Concentrating PrEP doses on young individuals can avert more infections than random allocation.

Next generation sequencing of HIV-1 protease in the PIVOT trial of protease inhibitor monotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The PIVOT trial examined whether patients with suppressed viral load on combination antiretroviral therapy could be safely switched long-term to ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI) monotherapy. The main trial publication reported that only one of 296 patients allocated to PI monotherapy experienced a loss of drug options due to protease mutations (identified by local Sanger sequencing resistance tests) likely selected by study drug. OBJECTIVES: To assess if we had missed low frequency mutations, using a more sensitive methodology. STUDY DESIGN: We performed next generation sequencing (NGS) on all available frozen plasma samples with VL >1000 copies/ml from patients who were randomised to PI monotherapy. Assays were performed at Public Health England laboratories using a previously described method. Median coverage depth was 76,000 and the threshold for detection of minority variants was 2%. Drug susceptibility was predicted using the Stanford HIVdb algorithm. RESULTS: 17 of 26 potential samples, all from different patients, were identified and successfully tested. The median viral load was 6780 copies/ml and the median time since randomisation was 43 weeks. NGS revealed previously unidentified minority variant protease mutations (G73D, I54T, L89V) in three samples, at frequencies ranging between 2% and 10%. None of these mutations predicted intermediate or high level resistance, the trial primary outcome. DISCUSSION: This report adds to the body of evidence that ritonavir-boosted PI monotherapy, when used as a switch strategy with prompt detection of viral load rebound and early re-introduction of combination therapy, rarely leads to the development of clinically important protease resistance mutations.

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

The association between detected drug resistance mutations and CD4+ T-cell decline in HIV-positive individuals maintained on a failing treatment regimen.

BACKGROUND: To analyse the effect of drug resistance mutations (DRM) on CD4+ T-cell (CD4) trends in HIV-positive people maintained on virologically failing antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: Individuals from two large cohorts experiencing virological failure (VF) while maintained on ART with ≥1 CD4 count and ≥1 resistance test were included. CD4 slopes were estimated using linear mixed models. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to assess the effect of clusters of mutations, defined using extracted component based scores from the PCA, on CD4 decline. RESULTS: 5,357 individuals contributing 7,661 VF episodes were included: any DRM were detected in 88.8% of episodes. After adjustment, CD4 counts declined less steeply during episodes where DRM were detected compared to episodes with no DRM (difference =28 cells/mm3/year, 95% CI =18, 39; P<0.001). Among individuals with at least one DRM, we found evidence that any nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance, the reverse transcriptase (RT) mutations M184V, D67N and T215Y as well as the protease mutations V82A and I54V were associated with reduced CD4 declines. The detection of any non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance, the RT mutations V179D and L74V were associated with steeper CD4 declines. The presence of some mutation patterns similar to the clusters identified by the PCA also affected the CD4 decline. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of resistance and of certain DRM during VF of ART has a small but significant favourable effect on CD4 decline.

An association between K65R and HIV-1 subtype C viruses in patients treated with multiple NRTIs.

Objectives: HIV-1 subtype C might have a greater propensity to develop K65R mutations in patients with virological failure compared with other subtypes. However, the strong association between viral subtype and confounding factors such as exposure groups and ethnicity affects the calculation of this propensity. We exploited the diversity of viral subtypes within the UK to undertake a direct comparative analysis. Patients and methods: We analysed only sequences with major IAS-defined mutations from patients with virological failure. Prevalence of K65R was related to subtype and exposure to the NRTIs that primarily select for this mutation (tenofovir, abacavir, didanosine and stavudine). A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effect of subtype on the prevalence of K65R, adjusting for previous and current exposure to all four specified drugs. Results: Subtype B patients ( n = 3410) were mostly MSM (78%) and those with subtype C ( n = 810) were mostly heterosexual (82%). K65R was detected in 7.8% of subtype B patients compared with 14.2% of subtype C patients. The subtype difference in K65R prevalence was observed irrespective of NRTI exposure and K65R was frequently selected by abacavir, didanosine and stavudine in patients with no previous exposure to tenofovir. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed that K65R was significantly more common in subtype C viruses (adjusted OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.55-2.62, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Patients with subtype C HIV-1 have approximately double the frequency of K65R in our database compared with other subtypes. The exact clinical implications of this finding need to be further elucidated.

Clinical Status of Adolescents with Perinatal HIV at Transfer to Adult Care in the UK/Ireland.

Background: Increasing numbers of children infected perinatally with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are surviving to adolescence and transitioning to adult care, yet there are scarce data on their clinical status at transfer. Methods: We analyzed prospective cohort data from the UK/Ireland national Collaborative HIV Pediatric Study (CHIPS). Clinical status at last pediatric clinic visit prior to transfer was described. Factors associated with higher CD4 cell count and viral load (VL) suppression<400 c/mL among patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at transfer were assessed using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Data were matched with the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UKHIVDRB) to assess cumulative resistance profiles at transfer. Results: Of 1,907 children followed in CHIPS from 1996 to November 2014, 644 (34%) transferred to adult care: 53% were female, 62% born outside the UK/Ireland, 75% black African. At last pediatric follow-up, median age was 17.4 years [interquartile range 16.5,18.1], 27% had previous AIDS diagnosis, CD4 was 444 cells/mm3 [280, 643], 76% were on ART, 13% off-ART, and 11% ART-naive. Among patients on ART, 74% had VL<400 c/mL. In multivariable analysis, higher CD4 at transfer was associated with younger age, higher CD4 at ART initiation and lower VL at transfer (P ≤ .001). Predictors of viral suppression include no AIDS diagnosis and later year of transfer (P ≤ .05). Of 291 patients with resistance data, 82% had resistance to ≥1 drug class, 56% to ≥2 classes and 12% had triple-class resistance. Conclusion: Three-quarters of adolescents were on stable ART at transfer, of whom 74% were virologically suppressed. The prevalence of triple-class resistance was relatively low at 12%.

HIV-1 drug resistance mutations emerging on darunavir therapy in PI-naive and -experienced patients in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Darunavir is considered to have a high genetic barrier to resistance. Most darunavir-associated drug resistance mutations (DRMs) have been identified through correlation of baseline genotype with virological response in clinical trials. However, there is little information on DRMs that are directly selected by darunavir in clinical settings. OBJECTIVES: We examined darunavir DRMs emerging in clinical practice in the UK. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Baseline and post-exposure protease genotypes were compared for individuals in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study who had received darunavir; analyses were stratified for PI history. A selection analysis was used to compare the evolution of subtype B proteases in darunavir recipients and matched PI-naive controls. RESULTS: Of 6918 people who had received darunavir, 386 had resistance tests pre- and post-exposure. Overall, 2.8% (11/386) of these participants developed emergent darunavir DRMs. The prevalence of baseline DRMs was 1.0% (2/198) among PI-naive participants and 13.8% (26/188) among PI-experienced participants. Emergent DRMs developed in 2.0% of the PI-naive group (4 mutations) and 3.7% of the PI-experienced group (12 mutations). Codon 77 was positively selected in the PI-naive darunavir cases, but not in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that although emergent darunavir resistance is rare, it may be more common among PI-experienced patients than those who are PI-naive. Further investigation is required to explore whether codon 77 is a novel site involved in darunavir susceptibility.